Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1221 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 1.1192.

The euro declined against the US dollar during the first half of the day. Clearly, the market is focused on news from the Middle East, and in the current environment, as long as geopolitics remains the main market driver, euro buyers have few arguments in their favor. Any spike in oil prices will strengthen demand for the US dollar, while any signs of easing tensions will provide only short-term relief for the euro. As for the US economic calendar, it contains just one release: the NAHB Housing Market Index for October. It measures sentiment among homebuilders and reflects the extent to which high mortgage rates are restraining demand. No significant impact on the US dollar should be expected from this report, so EUR/USD will depend primarily on developments in the region and movements in oil prices.

Regarding the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1217 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1255. At 1.1255, the plan is to close the position and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1203 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1217 and 1.1255.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1203 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1173, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level in the opposite direction. Selling pressure could return to the pair at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1217 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1203 and 1.1173.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.